Wednesday, November 16, 2011

USA Industrial Production at Post-Recession High! (Chart) *Highest since August 2008*

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Trend The short-term trend continues upwards, with 5 increases in the past 6 months. The intermediate-term trend and the long-term trend continue upwards.

Cycle History The current October 2011 USA Industrial Production Index is a Post-Great Recession peak of 94.71 (preliminary). A Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 was set in June 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was reached of 100.72 in September 2007.

Industrial Production Index (Chart) Below is a multi-year chart of the USA Industrial Production Index including the Pre-Great Recession cyclical peak of 100.72 in September 2007 through the latest month reported. After the Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 in June 2009, USA industrial production increased 15 consecutive months (July 2009 through September 2010). In the 13 months following, there have been 9 increases and 4 decreases and a Post-Great Recession high was set in October 2011 of 94.71 (preliminary).

Commentary The October 2011 USA Industrial Production Index of 94.72 (preliminary) eked out a new Post-Great Recession cyclical peak, which is encouraging. The Index was revised in prior months both positive and negative. Overall, the October 2011 monthly increase was strong at +0.68% and the current Index is above the midpoint (92.13) between the Pre-Recession peak and Recession low.

Official Statement by the Federal Reserve (November 16, 2011) Industrial production expanded 0.7 percent in October after having declined 0.1 percent in September. Previously, industrial production was reported to have gained 0.2 percent in September; most of this revision resulted from lower estimated output for mining. Factory output increased 0.5 percent in October after having risen 0.3 percent in September. Production at mines climbed 2.3 percent in October, while the output of utilities edged down 0.1 percent. At 94.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for October was 3.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry stepped up to 77.8 percent, a rate 2.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2010) average.

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