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Thursday, November 3, 2011

Federal Reserve Lowers USA GDP Projections (Charts) *Unemployment rate estimate raised*

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Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
Federal Open Market Committee, November 2, 2011: "Economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated."

FOMC Statement The related Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement was released November 2, 2011 and reviewed in a previous post, Federal Reserve: "Economic growth strengthened somewhat" (GDP Charts) "Continuing weakness in labor market". This post reviews the Summary of Economic Projections, which is an addendum to the minutes, and were also released on November 2, 2011.

Summary of Economic Projections
● 2011 GDP projection lowered to 1.6% - 1.7% range from 2.7% - 2.9% range
● 2012 GDP projection lowered to 2.5% - 2.9% range from 3.3% - 3.7% range
● 2011 Unemployment Rate projection raised to 9.0% - 9.1% from 8.6% - 8.9% range
● 2012 Unemployment Rate projection raised to 8.5% - 8.7% from 7.8% - 8.2% range
● 2011 PCE Inflation projection raised to 2.7% - 2.9% from 2.3% - 2.5% range
● 2012 PCE Inflation projection slightly raised to 1.4% - 2.0% from 1.5% - 2.0% range

GDP Projection (Summary of Economic Projections)
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents
The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.


Unemployment Rate Projection (Summary of Economic Projections)
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents
The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.


Inflation Rate Projection (Summary of Economic Projections)
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents
The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.


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