Sunday, September 18, 2011

USA Industrial Production at Post-Recession High! (Chart) *Highest since August 2008*

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Trend The short-term trend continues upwards, with 4 consecutive monthly increases and 5 increases in the past 6 months. The intermediate-term trend and the long-term trend continue upwards.

Cycle History The current August 2011 USA Industrial Production Index is a Post-Great Recession peak of 94.04 (preliminary). A Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 was set in June 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was reached of 100.72 in September 2007.

Industrial Production Index (Chart) Below is a multi-year chart of the USA Industrial Production Index including the Pre-Great Recession cyclical peak of 100.72 in September 2007 through the latest month reported. After the Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 in June 2009, USA industrial production increased 15 consecutive months (July 2009 through September 2010). In the 11 months following, there have been 3 monthly decreases and a Post-Great Recession high was set in August 2011 of 94.04 (preliminary).

Commentary The August 2011 USA Industrial Production Index of 94.04 (preliminary) is a new Post-Great Recession cyclical peak and very encouraging. The Index was revised in prior months both positive and negative. Overall, the August 2011 increase was small at +0.2%.

Official Statement by the Federal Reserve (September 15, 2011) Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in August after having advanced 0.9 percent in July. Manufacturing rose 0.5 percent in August, after a similarly sized gain in July, and the rates of change were revised down slightly in April, May, and June. In August, the output of mines moved up 1.2 percent. The output of utilities decreased 3.0 percent, as temperatures moderated somewhat from the previous month. At 94.0 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for August was 3.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry edged up to 77.4 percent, a rate 1.9 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 3.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972 - 2010) average.

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