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Saturday, April 30, 2011

Global Sovereign Risk: The Top 10 Most Risky Debtor Nations (Lists) *April 2011 Month End Review*

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Sovereign Risk


Below is a comparison of and the changes to the Top 10 Most Risky Debtor Nations from The 4th Quarter 2010 CMA Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report (December 31, 2010) to the recent CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor (April 30, 2011). This is a snapshot, the market for collateral default swaps (CDS), on which the lists are based, can be volatile and the Top 10 list can change quickly. Civil and military events, government statements and activity, and credit rating agency actions can change the Top 10 list instantly.


Top 10 Most Risky Nations

The Top Ten Most Risky Sovereign Debt (April 30, 2011) The CMA "Sovereign Risk Monitor" listed the following ten nations as having the highest risk of default:
1    Greece
2    Venezuela
3    Pakistan
4    Ireland
5    Portugal
6    Argentina
7    Ukraine
8    Lebanon
9    Dubai / Emirate of
10  Egypt

The Top Ten Most Risky Sovereign Debt (December 31, 2010) The CMA "Global Sovereign Credit Risk Report: 4th Quarter 2010" listed the following ten nations as having the highest risk of default:
1    Greece
2    Venezuela
3    Ireland
4    Portugal
5    Argentina
6    Ukraine
7    Spain
8    Dubai / Emirate of
9    Hungary
10  Iraq

Changes in and Comments about the Top 10 from December 31, 2010 to April 30, 2011
Pakistan enters Top 10 as #3 on deteriorating foreign debt status
Lebanon enters Top 10 as #8 on deteriorating political situation 
Egypt enters Top 10 as #10 on the revolution and overthrow of government
Spain drops out of Top 10
Hungary drops out of Top 10
Iraq drops out of Top 10


About CMA and the CMA Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report 

CMA, the world’s leading source of independent, accurate OTC credit market data, has unrivalled access to information about what is actually happening in the CDS markets. It combines this unmatched breadth and depth of pricing data with market-leading technology to deliver clear and valuable information to financial institutions around the world. The CMA ranks sovereign default risk by CPD (Cumulative Probability of Default). "CPD quantifies the probability of a country being unable to honour its debt obligations over a given period of time period. For Sovereign CDS, this typically includes the probability of a restructuring of debt."


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